Despite positive rainfall we still see wide spread damning reports on production numbers with the ‘latest’ from TBCSA (the Tomsa levy collectors) mentioning a drop in July comparing to 2011 values : ‘The performance for the second half of 2018 is anticipated at a slightly higher score of 59.2, still lower than what had been anticipated for January to June 2018. This is also the lowest score anticipated since 2011.” Read the article here The flip side of the current conditions calls it ‘CPT price plunge‘ and a ‘perfect storm‘ in that lower prices allows local agents to have access to otherwise highly priced inventory. (read more here). The article also makes mention of Airbnb but in our educated opinion have no effect on hotel rooms, as 75% of Airbnb sales in CPT are for entire homes at very low ARR’s of R959 which we doubt any hotel with its standard double room will accept. Look for yourself on www.airdna.co. When all is said and done we still need the cash and even though market data is essential we need to know what is lying ahead of us, not behind. We have that info and a glance saw Sep starting out at 34% occ and R1 200 ARR nett on the 1st. With 15 days of trading behind us (at the time of this report), we see a 2% drop in ARR to R1171 nett of VAT, but occ increase to 46%. The collective picture is as we have seen it before: the month starts with positive pricing and as we progress the pace drop and rates are reduce which in turn stimulates demand and creates sales. Oct started at 31% and gained 8% and also with ADR dropped from R1370 to R1340. Nov is currently at 33% and R1443 rate. Events returning to the city have a direct influence and our extensive events calendar is available by request, just contact me on jaco@hotel-revenue-manager.com General consensus are the pace have certainly improved and we can all breathe a bit easier. The cashflow is better and reporting easier with less excuses. Be certain we will ride the year out without fireworks and we can write it off now already. Ensure you track your pace, yield when the compset does and keep watch. want more? want to chose your compset to benchmark their forward book? get in touch now https://hotel-revenue-manager.com/contact-us/
August results Cape Town by Insights
Our August statistics are in and we see August 2018 closing on 48% occupancy and R1 097 ARR net (before comm but after tax). August started soft with 33% and gained 15% during the month to end at 48%. The majority of increase occurred in the last 10-12 days. This was in contrast to an ARR drop from R1 120 mid-month ending at R1 097 as we closed the month. It is evident that a last minute rate reduction was common practise to close the gap. Looking ahead we see Sept gaining 5% in occ the past 10 days and we start at 33% (compared to 25% one month ago). Sep ARR have grown with 4% to R1 210 the past 4 weeks. Oct is at 31% (a 5% gain since 1 Aug) and Nov is at 31% (the highest forward occ since prior to winter). Oct ARR have taken a slight dip compared to 2 weeks ago reducing by 1% to R1 365. Nov is starting out at R1 452. The trend is seemingly that hotels price forward with confidence but as reality set in, rates are dropped and rooms booked very last minute. Nonetheless the forward book is looking up, but not as much as we expected or need right now. Do you want more detail? Do you want to specify your compset? Contact us now on jaco@hotel-revenue-manager.com or 021 551 7440 *quoted stats are based on 17 000 shopped room nights from a variety of hotels all over CPT metro from 3-5 star and various classification
