How long is a piece of string? Is an easier question to answer. We attempted to answer this question twice last year but failed as new variables came into play. (the two articles  1.here and 2. here) With the world still firmly in the grip of COVID-19, lockdowns in place at various levels and degrees, new strains being identified, flights that are irregular and at half loads: once thing is certain: it won’t be anytime soon. With majority of hotels reliant on domestic travel, many will not see it through another 12 months. Most of our reports show we are trading on 2013-2014 levels which is 65-75% down on last year’s revenue this time. The burning question: when will our international markets return? But let’s look at what we know: The pandemic caused a 70% drop in international tourist arrivals globally from January to August, compared to the same period last year. Destinations such as South Africa that is reliant on international tourists have been the hardest hit. Many others too are in developing countries, where tourism is a major export earner. As a more transmissible and harder-to-control coronavirus variant has emerged in the UK and South Africa in recent days, dozens of countries have announced they would close their doors to travelers from both nations. Some countries, like Japan and Israel, have gone a step farther, banning all foreign nationals from entering. South Africa began reopening to tourism on Oct. 1, and according to the U.S. Embassy, as of Nov. 11, U.S. citizens can now enter South Africa for tourism purposes, but they need to present a negative COVID-19 test taken within 72 hours from the time of departure, or they must remain in mandatory quarantine for 14 days at their own cost. South Africa reintroduced level 3 lockdown late Dec 2020, with a ban on alcohol sale, gatherings and a 6am-9pm curfew. South Africa recorded an all-time high daily infection rate of 18 000 new cases on 31 Dec 2020 (much higher than the first wave’s record day of 14 000 on 24 July) Vaccines are in the final stages and the UK will be the first to roll it out to the most vulnerable citizens (elderly, health workers and people with co-morbidities). But it will take another couple of months and this is for the 1st country to start vaccinations. As for the remainder of the world and in SA – the vaccine has been ordered but a roll out date is uncertain. Looking at UK and US’s timelines: it could well be another 3-5 months which takes us to Apr/May in South Africa Now let’s make assumptions based on the known All countries are allowed to travel to SA but they don’t (most probably fears of contracting the virus or being locked down themselves or have travel bans in place) Our borders have been open since 1 October via the 3 main airports Tourists are not opting to travel. Travel will be considered after vaccines have been rolled out. A researched guess is that we will see some staggered arrivals once we are through winter The first few souls to arrive for the Lions Rugby Tour in July 2021 (if it won’t get cancelled). But will people travel to a country where the vaccine isn’t distributed as yet? Earlier this week President Ramaphosa said: ‘South Africa would probably only see the Covax vaccine in the second quarter of 2021’ (this is April to June) for elderly, health workers, people with co-morbidities & prisoners. I think September it will gradually increase and reach 65% of pre-2020 levels by Feb 2022 and full recovery by Feb 2023 I wish I had better news to start your new year. But Happy New Year and stay safe. P.S. Why don’t you take up one of our courses during this down time? (they are very inexpensive and/or free) https://hotel-revenue-manager.com/training/ Best Jaco