Despite positive rainfall we still see wide spread damning reports on production numbers with the ‘latest’ from TBCSA (the Tomsa levy collectors) mentioning a drop in July comparing to 2011 values : ‘The performance for the second half of 2018 is anticipated at a slightly higher score of 59.2, still lower than what had been anticipated for January to June 2018. This is also the lowest score anticipated since 2011.”  Read the article here

The flip side of the current conditions calls it ‘CPT price plunge‘ and a ‘perfect storm‘ in that lower prices allows local agents to have access to otherwise highly priced inventory. (read more here). The article also makes mention of Airbnb but in our educated opinion have no effect on hotel rooms, as 75% of Airbnb sales in CPT are for entire homes at very low ARR’s of R959 which we doubt any hotel with its standard double room will accept. Look for yourself on www.airdna.co.

When all is said and done we still need the cash and even though market data is essential we need to know what is lying ahead of us, not behind.  We have that info and a glance saw Sep starting out at 34% occ and R1 200 ARR nett on the 1st. With 15 days of trading behind us (at the time of this report), we see a 2% drop in ARR to R1171 nett of VAT, but occ increase to 46%. The collective picture is as we have seen it before: the month starts with positive pricing and as we progress the pace drop and rates are reduce which in turn stimulates demand and creates sales. Oct started at 31% and gained 8% and also with ADR dropped from R1370 to R1340. Nov is currently at 33% and R1443 rate.  Events returning to the city have a direct influence and our extensive events calendar is available by request, just contact me on jaco@hotel-revenue-manager.com

General consensus are the pace have certainly improved and we can all breathe a bit easier. The cashflow is better and reporting easier with less excuses. Be certain we will ride the year out without fireworks and we can write it off now already. Ensure you track your pace, yield when the compset does and keep watch.

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