IN SHORT Foreign tourist arrivals were down 1.3% year on year in September 2026 (835,380), with overseas tourists down 11.0% and SADC arrivals up 2.1%. The United States (−18.1%) and the United Kingdom (−12.6%) both fell. Air access via Dubai is recovering slowly: British Airways resumed on 3 November, but Lufthansa Group is not due back until 25 November and KLM not until 27 March 2027. The Middle East conflict is unresolved, although Brent crude fell about 9% on 4 November after the US midterms on hopes of de-escalation. The repo rate is 7.25% after two hikes this year, and South African fuel prices remain historically high despite a temporary levy cut from 4 November.
International demand for South Africa is mixed heading into the summer season. Regional road arrivals are holding up while overseas arrivals have weakened, air connectivity through the Gulf is returning more slowly than scheduled, and household budgets remain under pressure from fuel and interest rates. This update sets out where each factor stands as at 5 November 2026.
How are international arrivals to South Africa performing?
Stats SA recorded 835,380 foreign tourist arrivals in September 2026, down 1.3% on September 2025 (846,367). The 16.9% drop against August reflects an unusually strong August, when arrivals reached 1,005,286.
| Foreign tourists, September 2026 | Arrivals | Change on Sep 2025 | Share of total |
| All foreign tourists | 835,380 | −1.3% | 100% |
| Overseas | 161,753 | −11.0% | 19.4% |
| SADC | 659,613 | +2.1% | 79.0% |
Source: Stats SA, released 28 October 2026. Stats SA notes missing data at some ports, so figures may undercount. Shares calculated by Hotel Revenue Manager.
Which overseas markets are weakest?
The United States fell 18.1% to 27,825 and remains the largest overseas market. The United Kingdom fell 12.6% to 22,305, France fell 10.6%, the Netherlands 4.9% and Germany 3.6%. US arrivals were already down before the US midterm elections on 3 November, and no data yet links the decline to the vote.
How does that compare with August?
August 2026 was considerably stronger. Total arrivals were up 7.4% year on year and 12.1% above 2019. Overseas arrivals were up 5.3% year on year but still 4.6% below 2019. Cape Town International handled 63,033 overseas tourists in August, close to a third of the national total, and is the only ACSA airport past its 2019 traffic.
How is the Middle East conflict affecting air access?
The conflict that began on 28 February 2026 remains unresolved. Indirect US–Iran talks are being mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, and the United States carried out strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island on 2 and 3 November. Houthi missile strikes on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport on 8 and 10 October caused fatalities and flight suspensions.
The US midterm elections took place on 3 November, and Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, as called by the Associated Press. Brent crude fell about 9% on 4 November to roughly US$94 a barrel, from about US$118 on 30 October, as traders priced a higher chance of a US–Iran deal. President Trump said the United States had no immediate plans to strike Iran, and an analyst at BOK Financial said Democratic control could restrain US defence funding for Middle East operations and make a peace agreement more likely. Talks were still unresolved on 5 November, and oil prices have been volatile, having risen more than 10% in October.
South African pump prices follow import costs with a delay, through the monthly adjustment and alongside the rand, so any sustained fall in oil would reach the pump in later months rather than immediately.
Airlines are returning to Dubai in stages, and several dates have moved. Dubai is a connecting hub for some European and UK travellers heading to South Africa, so the constraint is on routings rather than on demand.
| Airline | Dubai service, as at 5 November 2026 |
| British Airways | Resumed 3 November (one daily flight from London Heathrow) |
| Air France | Suspended through 7 November |
| Lufthansa, Swiss, Eurowings | Planned return 25 November (postponed from 25 October and 1 November) |
| Austrian Airlines | Planned return 12 December |
| Singapore Airlines | Suspended until 28 February 2027 |
| KLM and Air Canada | Suspended until the end of March 2027 (KLM: 27 March) |
| Virgin Atlantic | Not planned before October 2027 |
Sources: airline announcements as reported by The National, Gulf News, Time Out Dubai and Aviation A2Z, 23 October to 4 November 2026. Dates have moved several times and may change again.
What is happening to fuel prices?
Fuel prices rose sharply on 7 October: petrol 93 by R3.12/l, petrol 95 by R3.33/l and diesel by between R2.84 and R3.24/l. Petrol 95 passed R30/l for the first time.
From 4 November, a temporary cut in the general fuel levy (R1.50/l on petrol and R3/l on diesel, until 1 December) left petrol almost unchanged, down 1c/l, with 95 inland at R30.24/l, and cut diesel by R1.10 to R1.20/l. A rise in the slate levy to 135.84c/l offset most of the petrol relief. The levy relief narrows to R1/l for petrol and R1.50/l for diesel from 1 December until 5 January 2027. Prices remain historically high.
What are interest rates and consumer spending doing?
The SARB raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% on 23 September 2026, the second hike this year after 28 May. The next MPC announcement is on 19 November 2026.
NielsenIQ found 43% of consumers cutting back on dining out and 43% on entertainment, and TransUnion’s Q2 2026 data shows 28% have cancelled subscriptions (BusinessTech, 24 September 2026). Neither survey gives a travel figure.
Are visa rules holding back bookings?
Latin American agents report lost bookings because of slow, costly visa processes (Tourism Update, 12 October 2026). The electronic travel authorisation (ETA) has been piloted since October 2025 for China, India, Indonesia and Mexico. It can stall with no help channel and excludes children. Home Affairs plans to extend it to all visa-required markets.
What else is on the radar?
- Short-term letting. The City of Cape Town’s draft Short-Term Letting By-law proposes mandatory registration, and commercial rates for units available more than 50% of nights a year, from 1 July 2027. Public comment closed on 5 October 2026.
- Seasonal outlook. The ENSO Reference Group and the University of Pretoria forecast a “very strong” El Niño peaking between October 2026 and January 2027, so a hotter, drier summer is likely. Cape Town is a winter-rainfall region, and the 2018 Day Zero crisis followed the 2015–2017 winter rainfall deficits, so the summer forecast is context rather than a signal of a repeat.
- Elections. Local government elections took place on 4 November, a public holiday. The IEC said voting had generally gone well, and counting was still under way on 5 November.
What does hotel performance data show?
CoStar’s Cape Town report of 16 September 2026 shows ADR up 11.8% year to date in US dollars and occupancy down 3.3%, so RevPAR is up 8.2%, slower than the 14.4% recorded across 2025.
Which dates matter in the coming weeks?
- 7 November: Air France’s Dubai suspension runs through this date.
- 19 November: SARB MPC announcement.
- 25 November: Planned Dubai return for Lufthansa, Swiss and Eurowings.
- 1 December: Fuel levy relief narrows.
- 12 December: Planned Dubai return for Austrian Airlines.
Where does this data come from?
Arrivals data is from Stats SA (released 28 October 2026). Fuel and interest rate information is from SAnews, the SARB and the Sowetan, oil prices and the US election result from the Associated Press, Reuters, CNBC and market reports of 4 November 2026, and airline schedules from the reports named under the airline table. Shares and totals were checked and calculated by Hotel Revenue Manager. Airline dates and conflict developments change quickly, so treat them as accurate as at 5 November 2026.
Hotel Revenue Manager provides outsourced revenue management and tourism business intelligence to independent hotels across South Africa, based in Cape Town.
