When will international travel resume based on the second wave of Covid?

We have resumed our operations mostly, and many properties see weekend travel only with weak midweek demand. The rate is also driven down by a price sensitive domestic market. Cape Town and the country is lacking its 250 000 average monthly seasonal international arrivals into Cape Town dearly.

In our Oct blog (https://hotel-revenue-manager.com/october-2020-hotel-roundup-south-africa/) most of our source market were allowed to travel. Their levels of infection at that stage was stable and our forecasts were based with no anticipation of their winters and a possible 2^nd wave of Covid.

Unfortunately much have changed since early October:

Below a list of our source markets and average start date of 2^nd wave and increased infection rate:

• UK 3 October
• USA 20 October
• DE 17 October
• IT 18 October
• FR 7 October
• NL 8 October

(source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic )

From our 1^st wave’s data we see the average peak-and-subside period is 2 months. Therefor the above countries might be able to resume travel from 15 December onwards (being super optimistic). Their winter however is approaching and taking this in mind, we could now only expect them from January 2021 onwards.

Source: Stats SA

We get 1.74 million arrivals between October to April annually. To date we have lost nearly 500 000 arrivals (Oct and Nov) and Dec and Jan is at risk (which usually yields 550 000 arrivals). From the average 900 000 room nights available per month in the Cape Town metro, this total loss equates to 61% of occupancies – gone/vanished. Therefor the current occupancy levels of 35-45% is completely justifiable. (if you are doing ‘well’)

I am sure the above will help you forecast operations and expenses.

Some Tips:

• don’t try to push rates upwards in big increments
• do not fall for OTA’s and their promotional talk as it will only reduce the rate further
• don’t waste time on international contracting for arrivals now to early Jan ’21
• release all tentative STO’s and groups now to early Jan ’21
• forget about GOV (government) travel for the rest of this year
• aim at domestic travel (agents and individuals) only
• ensure your child and 3rd person policies are updated, correct and visible
• attempt to sell a package but aim at families
• always have a room only rate open and bookable
• limit promotions as you will only drive rate down in a time when demand is super weak. In other words you cannot stimulate demand with a low rate as there is none.
• try value ads
• try self a drive package
• ensure visibility and parity on local OTA’s such as safarinow, travelground, lekkeslaap, etc
• your own website rate must be cheapest by 10% at least
• don’t back down on marketing and awareness campaigns (email, social media, blog updates, ect)
• go organic in your traffic, earn it by uploading enticing and engaging content at regular intervals (twice weekly) and be consistent not to ‘forever’

Keep going!

We will get through this too.

Best, Jaco