As I write this article, I cannot say that I know more now than what I knew this time last year…
We were ever so hopeful that travel would recovered somewhat but were aren’t out of the trenches yet. I am saying this as there is a myriad of factors making forecasting and managing expectations still very challenging.
Vaccine passports, Covid tests for travel and our view
Vaccination rate have slowed in SA and the media have seemingly turned its attention elsewhere. SA’s infection rate is very low as we know and one can still travel without a vaccination pass, as long as you have a negative PCR test (less than 72 hours old) and a valid passport/visa.
Why is covid still a barrier to travel and so heavily enforced, affecting our livelihoods and business?
Just think, a test less than 72 hours old, why not have a rapid, cost-effective test in this day and age? Why 72 hours. (Regardless of what you do in that 72 hour.) and never mind that the PCR test wasn’t designed to detect infectious diseases “[Dr Mullis the inventor of PCR test] said that this PCR test was not made to detect any type of infectious disease. It’s designed to pick up a signature of DNA and RNA of the person being tested.”
In addition to this the fact that influenza basically disappeared since March 2020 in also very questionable.
Also, that despite nearly 6 billion doses being administered globally the rate of infection is increasing the ‘authorities’ now blame the spread on kids, which were initially safe… and that boosters are required…
One can certainly only assume now that there is something that the unvaccinated will always have in common with the vaccinated is: neither of them will ever be fully vaccinated.
We at Aquarius Hospitality Holdings respect the choice of all individuals and will never, ever enforce compulsory vaccinations to our team of 20+ because:
- It goes against our constitution in section 12(2) which provides: that every person has the right to bodily and psychological integrity, which includes the right to make decisions concerning reproduction; to security in and control over their body; and not to be subjected to medical or scientific experiments without their informed consent
- An employer forcing vaccinations can be held liable for side effect stemming from the vaccine
To be clear I am not against the vaccine, I am against the prevention of free will or not allowing people to choose. (If I was 60+ yo with co morbidities I would be in front of the queue to get vaccinated!)
Industry report on market expectations
The recent WTM conference in London had mixed reports of expectations from 700 surveyed travel professionals: and I quote: Four in ten (40%) senior travel professionals expect their 2022 booking volumes to match, or even exceed, 2019 levels.
A total of 26% of respondents were confident that industry bookings for 2022 would be comparable with 2019, with a further 14% expecting 2022 to outperform the last ‘normal year’ before the outbreak of COVID-19 at the start of 2020.
However, not everyone is expecting a recovery in 2022. Almost half of the individual business owners expected 2022 to be a struggle, with 42% admitting that bookings were unlikely to match 2019. A further 14% were not sure how 2022 would pan out
You make your own conclusion; but on the ground I can tell you that some are doing better, some the same, and some still not so good. This simply means demand is diluted and there is simply not enough business coming into ‘town’ and that there is a heavy oversupply of rooms stock.
What all this means for your business:
- Forget trying to recoup losses by selling crazy rates
- Look at the compset and stay a notch below
- Increase when you have demand but be careful that it’s not self-generated and you out-price vs the compset
- Don’t get fancy tools and booking portals, they don’t work (yet)
- Lead time is short, keep market related rates 0-10 days out
- Don’t join all the OTA promos, there isn’t enough demand and it won’t improve raking enough to warrant the discount
- Recovery will happen but not yet, we forecast Oct 2022
- Don’t budget too high it won’t happen (yet)
- Keep marketing local domestic
- Guests wants to use Whatsapp to book, don’t underestimate its value
Until the next time, my best
Jaco
